You wanted a race for the ages. You asked for the reigning champ to leave her comfort zone and face the best the world has to offer. And now, you’ve finally got it. This year, there will be no excuses. This year, they’re all coming for the big show. This time, it’s really the final curtain. In this clash of the Titans, giants will be slain. Immortality will be achieved. It’s about laying all of the cards down on the table, risking everything for one chance to prove oneself on the world’s stage under conditions none have faced before. In this battle of epic proportions, there can only be on victor. Who will win the Breeders’ Cup Classic?
In what is coming down to the deepest, most contentious field ever assembled for the richest race in America, the Breeders’ Cup Classic will pit defending Classic winner and undefeated champion Zenyatta against males on dirt for the first time in her career. Riding the wave of her 19-race win-streak into Louisville, the imposing dark mare with the swagger of a prizefighter and the screen presence of Paul Newman will be putting her streak on the line in what will be the last race of her career. Should she win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in Louisville, she will retire with a record-breaking 20 wins in 20 starts, and go down unquestionably as one of the sport’s all-time Greats. By now, she is undoubtedly one of the greatest racemares of all-time, but still the lingering question of surface bias comes to mind when reflecting on her Classic victory last year. Yes, she has won on dirt before, and by some of the largest margins in her career, but only against females on a far lesser level than her own. In Louisville, she will be facing males on a traditional dirt surface, and all home field advantages will have evaporated.
Stepping up to the challenge are a flock of heavy-hitters. Surely the most venerable of these is Blame, a two-time graded stakes winner on Churchill’s main track, most recently in the Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap against a solid field of contenders. With his explosive late-running style, he has a chance of nipping Zenyatta at the wire, should she take the initiative first. Zenyatta has never had to fight back against a horse closing ground behind her, and Blame has the kind of rocket booster kick that could put him in the position of looking the great whale in the eye. It takes Zenyatta such a long time to get rolling, she could lose the race if forced to re-rally a jump before the finish line. That being said, Zenyatta’s meteoric late-kick has yet to be rivaled.
Blame has already beaten three of the horses entered in the Classic, two of which bounced back to win their next races—namely, Quality Road and Haynesfield. It was in Blame’s last start, the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup, that Haynesfield turned the tables and ran away with highway robbery when he took the lead and never looked back. Haynesfield will have to try a similar tactic in the Classic to taste victory, but he will have plenty of competition in the early stages vying for the lead, as well. And that brings us to one of the other top challengers in the race, Quality Road.
While The Road was defeated in an uncharacteristic performance in the Grade I Whitney at Saratoga (his single loss this year), he won his prep race for the Classic, the Grade I Woodward, for fun; actually, some would say the big bay colt looked bored as he crossed the wire in hand under regular rider John Velazquez. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has noted that The Road runs best when coming off a longer layoff, therefore, his 9-week break since the Woodward should make him a force to be reckoned with come Classic time. The Road can run on the lead, stalking, or from mid-pack. When he’s on his game, he’s as scary-powerful as a Chuck Norris karate kick. Should he be in peak form at Churchill, he could make his last race a career-topper. Still, there are two major concerns for this bay beast: 1. This is the horse that was scratched after breaking through the starting gate in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year; though his gate issues look to be resolved, there are going to be more than a couple people in the grandstands cheering before the horses break-not to mention quite a bit of media presence. For The Road’s sake, let’s hope the helicopters aren’t hovering over the starting gate as they were before last year’s race. 2. Quality Road seems to really hate the slop, and November in Kentucky can be quite unpredictable weather-wise. In this two tries over it, he has not looked like the same horse. Though he finished in the money in those efforts, a sloppy track would almost seal his doom as a Classic hopeful.
One of the most accomplished horses in this Classic field is 3-year-old Lookin at Lucky, the 2009 Eclipse winner for Juvenile Male. Though plagued with an ironic ill fortune half of this year, the Bob Baffert trainee has overcome adversity to clench victories in the Grade I Preakness Stakes, the Grade I Haskell, and most recently, in the Grade II Indiana Derby. Though he finished mid-pack in the Kentucky Derby in his only start at Churchill, he endured a horrible trip and was ping-ponged against the rail before the first turn; his new jockey has already proven to do a better job keeping him out of trouble. Ever since his reins were handed to break-out jockey Martin Garcia, Lucky has been able to prove his mettle as the top male in his age group. This will be his first time running against older horses, but as he is equipped with the heart of a lion, watch for Lucky to come roaring down the stretch to hook up with those foes like David going toe-to-toe with Goliath.
Making his debut on dirt will be the runner-up of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, turf champion Gio Ponti. Though it’s stacking the odds against him by sticking the 5-year-old horse on a surface he’s never run on before and against a field of mostly dirt horses, Gio Ponti is hard-knocking class with a stack of credentials impossible to ignore. Though his 2010 campaign hasn’t been as sparkling as last year’s, Gio Ponti has managed to win or finish second at four different distances this year. In his most recent start, the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, Gio Ponti turned in an impressive performance shortening up for the 1-mile test. His other victory came in the Grade I Man o’ War at Belmont, the 1 3/8-mile turf race he won the year before. Though his chances on dirt may be in question, his performances over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride proves that he can brilliantly handle a surface switch. Boasting as versatile a running style as his varying conquered distances, don’t count out this warhorse in the big dance.
Representing the international contingent in the Classic, Japanese invader Espoir City will be running against the toughest field he’s ever faced when he enters the gates for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and also extending himself over the 10-furlong distance for the first time. The winner of the 2009 Japan Cup Dirt, Espoir City is Japan’s star race horse, and holds a record of 11 wins in 20 starts. This son of Sunday Silence likes to run on or near the lead, and will help give the Classic plenty of pace. Likely hounding his speedy heels will be First Dude, who has yet to win a race other than his maiden, but has consistently run second or third in Grade I stakes races for the better part of the year. Another solid horse who is always right in the money, but has seldom found the winner’s circle is Musket Man, who has become accustomed to the role of bridesmaid for Quality Road and Blame, finishing in 2nd or 3rd to them twice this year. Most recently, Musket Man finished second to Etched in the Grade II Monmouth Cup. Etched will enter the Classic ogling at the mammoth competition; the last time he was at Churchill Downs, he finished a dismal 13th behind Blame in the Clark Handicap. Etched is more suited to running in a small Monmouth stakes race than the world championships.
Three intriguing contenders who will run under generous odds are Paddy O’Prado, Fly Down, and Morning Line. While Paddy O’Prado has blossomed into a Grade I-winning grass horse, winning three turf stakes in a row, he is up against it in this test. His supporters will hearken back to the Kentucky Derby, where he finished a fast-closing third in the slop; but Paddy didn’t impress anyone over the fast dirt at Pimlico, where he finished 6th, only the second time he’d ever been out of the money. So if you’re a supporter of Paddy, you’d better pray for rain. Fly Down is as honest of a race horse as it gets, a nose short of winning the Grade I Travers this year after impressing in a flashy Dwyer victory this summer. Last time out, the late-running Fly Down ran third behind Haynesfield and Blame in the Jockey Club Gold Cup; he doesn’t win often, but as there will be a lot of speed in the Classic, you can’t afford to overlook the closers. Morning Line is a late-blooming 3-year-old who made his presence known in the Pennsylvania Derby, when he won his stakes debut over First Dude and A Little Warm. The big Tiznow colt will have to run the race of his life to beat these battle-tested rivals, but he looks to be a nice up-and-comer who is worth taking a shot with in this mind-boggler of a race.
Fourteen horses. A mile and a quarter. $5 million dollars on the line. Churchill Downs under the lights. 60,000 screaming fans. Zenyatta’s last dance. Quality Road’s final blast-off. Two minutes will turn mortals into immortals. Can Zenyatta defeat the world’s top dirt horses over their preferred surface? Can Zenyatta make history in becoming the first undefeated horse to win three Breeders’ Cup races, something none of us will likely ever see again? Will she break the record of 19 consecutive wins? Or will someone finally beat her to the punch and steal the glory?
No excuses. The gang’s all here. Game on.
Author’s Note: 60 Minutes will feature a segment on Zenyatta this Sunday, October 31st. Click here to see the preview.
Post positions will be drawn for the Breeders’ Cup next week. The Breeders’ Cup World Championships begin next Friday, November 5th, and continue through Saturday, November 6th, with coverage on ABC and ESPN. Check your local listings for times.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic will air live on ESPN Saturday, November 6th. Post time is scheduled for approximately 6:45pm ET.