Yale (5-3)
All-time: 2-0 (last meeting Illinois 73-47 Yale (11/23/2010 in Champaign)
Tip-off: 7 pm at State Farm Center
TV: ESPN3
Remember the days when a blowout win against a bunch of Ivy nerds was assured? Those were better times; alas, a win like Illinois enjoyed the last time Yale was in Champaign is anything but guaranteed. However, I’d say that’s not entirely due to poor Illini play so far this season. Fact of the matter is, like so many of the mid-majors on Illinois’s schedule, Yale is good this year. Sure, the Bulldogs are Ivy League good, but they’re not the soft opponent people might expect.
Picked to win the Ivy (after having nearly done so last year) and featuring preseason conference player of the year, Justin Sears, Yale is no slouch. The Bulldogs like to move the ball and wear down opponents, and they have shooters who can make the most of the space good ball movement creates. Sears is averaging 15.6 points per game so far and point guard Makai Mason is getting 14.6 plus almost 5 assists per game.
Active hands and intelligent defensive sets are going to be critical for Illinois in this match-up. The Illini come in favored by just 3.5 points (according to Ken Pom), so a repeat of some of the defensive miscues as in the Iowa State or Notre Dame games will spell defeat. Groce has made a point of prioritizing defensive play (e.g., extended minutes for Alex Austin, benching Malcolm Hill to start the second half against WCU), so the Illini know what is being asked of them on Wednesday.
Projected lineups
Yale: Makai Mason, guard; Jack Montague, guard, Nick Victor, guard; Brandon Sherrod, forward; Justin Sears, forward
Illinois: Jaylon Tate, guard; Alex Austin, guard; Kendrick Nunn, guard; Malcolm Hill, guard/forward; Michael Finke, forward
Bold prediction
Leron Black has been sporadically healthy so far this season, and it has been obvious by his stats. The team is managing him carefully, however, and (if he’s not hurting) I think he could be primed for a big game off the bench against Yale. Sears is their only legit big man, as Sherrod is just 6’6” and took last year off from basketball (to sing a capella, no less). If there’s an inefficiency to be exploited here, it would be on the interior, and Black is the best interior scorer on the team (consistently, anyway; prove me wrong, Michael Finke).