Western Carolina (3-4)
All-time: 0-2 (last Illinois 72 – 64 WCU, 12/4/12)
Tip-off: 2 p.m. at State Farm Center
TV: ESPN3
Western Carolina’s wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Hiwassee, and Warren Wilson…yep. Maybe, finally, the Illini can catch a break here. I know, everyone thought the same thing about Chicago State, but I think it’s probably still fair to consider Illinois a step-up from the co-rec teams WCU has played so far.
The Catamounts play tough and like the three ball, and they have a couple players averaging decent totals, Mike Brown (17.7 ppg) and Torrion Brummitt (14.7 ppg). But Brummitt really failed to show in a loss against Cincinnati and neither did well when WCU lost to South Carolina. Ken Pom ranks Cincy and SC much higher than the Illini, but, again, look at the teams the Catamounts have beaten; the pregame cause for concern is not there.
In fact, Ken Pom predicts the Illini will win their next five games, but by its advanced metrics Illinois is also one of the worst teams on defense. Of 349 teams, Illinois ranks 301st in effective FG%, 278th in 3FG% defense, 282nd in 2FG% defense, and 299th in block%. Now that the thirsty mid-majors like North Florida and Chattanooga are out of the way (I wouldn’t be surprised to hear more about them in March), Illinois can focus on improving those poor defensive stats (and poor defensive performance, in general) against lesser opponents. Without Mike Thorne Jr., it’s all uphill for Illinois, but that’s just reality at this point.
Projected lineups
Western Carolina: Mike Brown, forward; Justin Browning, forward; Torrion Brummit, guard; Devin Peterson, guard; Dereice Parks, guard
Illinois: Maverick Morgan, center; Leron Black, forward; Malcolm Hill, guard; Kendrick Nunn, guard; Jaylon Tate, guard
Bold prediction
Illinois will lead this one wire-to-wire. Not a lot of explanation needed, here, just solid basketball.
Here’s another bold prediction for you: People visiting the new State Farm Center for the first time Saturday will be annoyed by the ushers. The new premium seating areas have turned the ushers into rule minders as strict as a stereotypical Catholic school teacher. You are NOT allowed to wander around. You are only permitted to go where your ticket says you should go. Keep this in mind in case you thought, “Oh, I’d love to see some of the changes!” You can’t, they won’t let you, and even if you ask nicely they’ll get all huffy and tell you NO YOU MAY NOT DO THAT. State Farm Center is a meritocracy now, and you’re likely not good enough to see how the other half watches sports. ¯_(ツ)_/¯