The final score of Illinois’s loss to Villanova (73-59) looks worse than the actual game did, because for a while the Illini were really hanging with them. Three minutes into the second half the game was actually tied, 38-38; but that’s when Illinois committed three consecutive turnovers and essentially lost the game.
Illinois did good things, like holding Nova to zero threes in the first half and shooting better than 40 percent, and Malcolm Hill looked like a an All-American with his 20-point outburst. But the way Nova dominated in the paint (42-30 points in the paint and 37-30 on rebounds) combined with continued poor shooting from Ahmad Starks and Aaron Cosby (combined 3-13) spelled doom for the Illini.
After the game John Groce called his players “selfish,” adding that they did not help one another in the loss. He also stressed that practice would be grueling between the loss and Saturday’s game against Oregon at the United Center in Chicago (tip at 6 p.m.). Fans won’t see how those practices go, but they shouldn’t be surprised at some changes based on what happens at Ubben.
The most obvious change could be Cosby dropping from the lineup. Over his last four games the transfer from Seton Hall is shooting just 13% (4/30), whereas Kendrick Nunn has looked especially strong on defense in recent games and could be poised to return to the starting five. With Oregon being a smaller team than Villanova, I would still expect to see Hill at forward quite a bit, but expect a little more cooperation between him and Nnanna Egwu. The two have not developed a rhythm on switching and helping inside, and that will certainly be a point of emphasis for Groce in the time between games.
As for Oregon, they’ve compiled a 5-3 record, but the losses don’t look very good. First there was Michigan, who has since crumbled into some kind of garbage heap, then VCU, who plummeted out of the top 25 shortly after beating the Ducks, and finally Ole Miss, who has been sporadically impressive but did lose to Charleston Southern to open the season. Oregon is ranked really high in terms of rebounds per game (30.8, 2nd), but KenPom.com has them rated 87th for defensive efficiency (Illinois is 29th), so I’d say the rankings might be skewed by the opposition in Oregon’s wins (such as the Illini being the top-scoring team in the nation after their back-to-back 100-point games).
This game isn’t going to make or break the season, but Groce will want his team to make a statement in Chicago, especially after losses to two ranked teams in three games. I think they can do just that.
My prediction: Illinois 71, Oregon 60.
