Illinois is a binary team this year. They are either a team that gets behind early in games and then rallies with a dramatic offensive flourish to win a heartstopper, or they are a team that gets behind early in games and then rallies with a dramatic but insufficient offensive flourish to lose to a team they could have easily beaten. So as Illinois travels to take on the Nittany Lions in the Quaker State, which will it be. Trick or treat?
Illinois has come out on the wrong side of its last two low scoring games, after winning a big one against Arizona State. Penn State has a smothering defense, and a lot of their scores this year wouldn’t be fantastically out of place for baseball. So the question looks to be whether Illinois can win playing low and slow, or whether they will be able to force Penn State to play at their pace, as Northwestern did. Expect Jason Ford to get a lot of carries as Illinois attempts to get some momentum going in the ground game, and also looks to build on the success it had in passing to Ford on short downfield routes when the deeper threats were covered.
About those deeper threats: A.J. Jenkins may have some company downfield as Darius Millines finally comes back from a foot injury. Jenkins is leading the nation in the percentage that his yards make up of the team’s total receiving, which isn’t really a statistic that you want to lead in. Millines may help the downfield strike by forcing the defense to look beyond just making sure that No. 8 is blanketed.
Penn State has not been explosive offensively, and Illinois’ defense ranks 10th nationally in the amount of yards they’re giving up per game. The Nittany Lions rely heavily on Silas Redd, who has 4 consecutive games with 100 yards or more, and leads the Big Ten with 869 yards on the ground. Redd is relatively small at 5’10” but generates a ton of quickness and power from his 210 pounds, so look out for some potentially jaw dropping hits between Redd and Illinois’ defensive standouts in Brown and Mercilus.
On the flip side, Joe Paterno, the Penn State head coach who also happens to be older than the head waiter at the Last Supper, has said that Illinois is the best team that Penn State has faced this year, outside of their game against Alabama. And if Illinois plays well, he’s probably right. Aside from their loss to the insufferable Crimson Tide, Penn State has won all of their games, though not always convincingly, and not against any of the better teams in the Big Ten. Temple (14-10), Indiana (16-10), Iowa (13-3), Purdue (23-18): these are not final scores that inspire confidence.
For the first time this year, Illinois is not favored to win the game. They are 5 point underdogs. Zook has expressed that might actually be a good thing, as he thought the team looked nervous and tight in their last two games, perhaps the result of the building expectations. I tend to agree, especially given the number of passes that were badly overthrown. Getting away from the criticism and hand-wringing in the Illini nation to go on the road and sling it around with lower expectations might be just the thing.
Penn State is ranked 19th in the BCS Standings and the USA Today poll, and comes in at 21st in the AP. But those barely there wins, especially against Temple and Indiana, but also as to Purdue and Iowa, have some believing that Penn State is worse than their record. But they find a way to win the close games. If you don’t think that means much, you probably didn’t think Illinois was very good after the Western Michigan game. If you do think that means something, then welcome to my world.
You can never really stop watching this team. Depending on how much anti-nausea medication you own, it is debatable whether this is good or bad. Illinois has scored 11 times this year on scoring drives of less than 2 minutes. If you don’t remember the last series against Northwestern (6 plays, 69 yards, 1:02 total time) than you haven’t been paying much attention. This may partially explain why it is so frustrating to watch Illinois in the losses against Ohio State and Purdue. Not making plays is one thing, but watching a team that we’ve seen make plays so many times not make plays when needed is a whole other bucket of agony. So a low scoring grinder on Saturday (which seems imminently possible) could make for a tense couch session.
Some broader issues to touch on. For all of those who reflexively decide that anytime Ron Zook or the Illini make a decision that goes against what you perceive to be conventional wisdom they’re idiots, read this article: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6948865/speed-chess. Feel free to tell me in the comments whether it’s just maybe possible that the coaches (not just our coaches, but most college coaches) know more about the strengths and weaknesses of the athletes on the field, and are making decisions on that criteria, rather than the “everybody knows you kick the fieldgoal” rubrik.
For anyone with any opinions on the role of money in high profile college athletics and whether the NCAA does or doesn’t need structural reforms with regard to the way that college athletes are and are not allowed to benefit from their participation in sports, read this article: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/10/the-shame-of-college-sports/8643/.
Better yet, print it off and read it (it’s a tome, but well worth it) and then give your printout to a friend so that next time you have a debate about these issues you’ll actually know what you’re talking about.
The game is at 2:30 p.m. local time, and it’s on ABC (it’ll be on ESPN2 in some markets). You can also stream it live from www.espn3.com. And it someone rings your doorbell and you find a flaming bag, don’t put it out with your shoe. Trick or treat.