After continuous weekends of watching 3-year-olds vie for Derby honor, this weekend gives fans a break, which allows us a moment to reflect on what we’ve seen from the crop thus far. At this stage in the season, ten weeks away from the Kentucky Derby, it may still be too early to nail down who might arise as a major contender; anything can and will happen in a day, nevermind the time it will take these rising stars to make it to Kentucky.
Last Saturday’s Southwest Stakes proved to be one of the most tantalizing prep races yet. Not only did Old Fashioned win the first race of his 3-year-old season, he did so after facing the formidable Silver City, who wasn’t going to let him cake walk to the wire. Some may criticize Old Fashioned for not winning as easily as he did in the Remsen Stakes, but I think this just shows how good Silver City is. The Southwest was the fourth career start for Silver City, and his first time going around two turns. Before this step up in class, Silver City was on a three-race win streak. In an allowance race at Churchill Downs, he beat General Quarters, the colt who won the Sam F. Davis Stakes in an upset. Considering all of this, Silver City earns more respect in my book for forcing Old Fashioned, now the cemented Derby favorite, to fight back and take charge.
But is there any other horse in this 3-year-old crop who can claim such consistency? Who are the stand-outs? Are Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse legitimate contenders? Because I believe synthetic tracks might as well be turf surfaces, I just can’t take any horse who’s never run on dirt seriously. Call it a prejudice, but the synthetics have become the monkey wrench when it comes to handicapping: it’s such a new aspect to the handicapping process, there aren’t enough statistics to compare with. What proof exists isn’t good news for California horses, ultimately. If you look at last year’s Kentucky Derby for guidance as to whether or not to “believe” in the synthetic horses, Colonel John had never raced on dirt before his sixth-place finish at Churchill Downs; he did, however, go on to “win” the Travers (Oh Mambo, I know the truth!) at Saratoga. Trainer Bob Baffert says he doesn’t plan to bring Pioneerof the Nile to a dirt prep race before the Derby. “Either he’ll like it or he won’t.” Well, sure, but wouldn’t a start over the dirt better prepare the colt for the kickback, which cannot really be duplicated in training? Horses also move differently over the dirt than on the “fake stuff:” they must use their hind end to propel themselves forward to “dig” themselves out of the dirt, if you will. There’s a reason why few horses can seamlessly transfer from dirt to turf. They’ve been geared to one surface, so how can they be expected to shine on something entirely different?
Speaking of The Pamplemousse, the winner of the San Rafael Stakes made a spectacle of a workout going six furlongs on Wednesday as he prepared for next Saturday’s Grade III Sham Stakes. The Daily Racing Form printed a light-hearted story about the workout, documenting the exact moment when the colt’s trainer, Julio Canani, caught Derby fever. The Pamplemousse will be looking to win his third race in a row. His jockey, Alex Solis, has been riding the colt in his workouts, and says The Pamplemousse is “getting stronger,” and that his training is coming along resplendently. Like Pioneerof the Nile, The Pamplemousse has never raced on conventional dirt. For now at least, we can enjoy watching the synthetic horses taking on each other. The Santa Anita Derby should prove interesting, especially if Stardom Bound does end up facing the colts, like Michael Iavarone announced before being rapped on the knuckles by trainer Bobby Frankel.
As for horses who know what real dirt looks like, there’s Larry Jones’ other promising horse, Friesian Fire. It’s taken a while for me to respect this horse, who just couldn’t seem to get it together before he won the Lecomte Stakes, and then the Risen Star. But as Mr. Jones has always thought a lot of him, and since this trainer certainly knows what a Derby contender looks like, you can’t count him out. As many horses have proven, sometimes it takes a while before a horse “gets it” and begins to really roll. Perhaps Friesian Fire has finally found that career stride.
Thursday’s Gulfstream allowance for Race 8 was a mini-stakes race for its wealth of Derby potential. But as the drama of the race unfolded, it was clear no one could come close to this colt’s talent. Thrown at least five wide into the first turn, Dunkirk settled into fourth under Garrett Gomez before catching up with the front-running Alma d’Oro on the final turn; and when he stuck his head in front, it was good-bye to the rest of the field. Dunkirk went on to win by four and chalked his record as a perfect 2–2. Never having raced as a 2-year-old, Dunkirk might well be the new blood this Derby trail needs. If you’re worried about his lack of starts, you don’t have to look far to find past major contenders who either didn’t start as 2-year-olds (Curlin), or only entered the Derby with three prior starts (Big Brown). Garrett Gomez certainly had confidence in this colt, as he flew all the way from California to Florida to ride him in that allowance.
Looks like somebody wants to win the Kentucky Derby pretty badly this year.