The Illini are off to a 1 and 0 start to the season for a first time in a long time, helped along by the demise of the “Border War” game against Missou. No longer bound by pride (and contract) to face off against such a troublesome opponent, Illinois was free to schedule an easier matchup to work the summer kinks out. And did so, handily beating Arkansas State.
With their feet under them, shall we expect the Illini to now tackle a more difficult foe? Yes. But not this week. Therein lies the potential problem.
Rather than schedule the easiest team first, Illinois scheduled what is likely to be the easiest team of the nonconference schedule (and, by default, of the entire schedule) second. The most difficult opponent of the non-conference schedule is third, when Arizona State comes to Champaign next weekend. This week, Illinois brings in a team from a division down: the FCS division (formerly known as Division I-AA).
This, my friends, is what is colloquially known as a trap game, albeit a mild trap and one that the Illini are very unlikely to be ensnared by. The thinking goes like this: Illinois beat Arkansas State. Illinois gained confidence. Illinois knows their second opponent, the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State, are, at least on paper, weaker than Arkansas State. Thinking that a week two win is in the bag, Illinois could let its guard down against the Jackrabbits as they prematurely turn their focus to the (only) big nonconference test against Arizona State on September 17th.
This creates an opening for South Dakota State to come in and surprise the Illini, thereby getting their name in all of the national sports pages. Also, South Dakota State has the added incentive of wanting to get their criminally underappreciated Jackrabbits logo out in front of more eyes.
All that being said: a dose of realism. Trap games befall poorly coached teams, and Illinois is not. Mssrs. Koenig and Petrino know how to get their team ready for games, and from quotes circulating out there, the players have gotten the message of taking things one week at a time.
Pop psychology aside, how do the teams actually stack up? The scary part is that your guess is pretty much as good as mine. South Dakota State, which plays in the Missouri Valley Conferece is coming off a one-point home victory over Southern Utah. Southern Utah scored 21 points in the third quarter by capitalizing on turnovers, and would have won the game had a Jackrabbit not batted down a pass to defeat the 2 point conversion and seal the win.
The Jackrabbits had 416 yards of total offense in that game, which was reasonably balanced between ground and air. Not terrible offensively, but not explosive either. Illinois’ improved secondary is likely to be a decisive factor here.
As for the other side of the coin, my prediction is that Illinois wins this game in the air. Southern Utah threw for 340 yards against the Jackrabbits last week, compared with only 53 rushing yards. AJ Jenkins and Darius Millines showed fine form, and if that continues, expect to see huge plays and huge numbers from one or, more likely, both. A balanced offense and a strong defensive line are cited as strengths for SDSU, but pass defense is not. Scheelhaase, as long as he remains in the game, should have opportunities to make this one fun to watch.
Other things to watch: the Jackrabbits have have a linebacker named “Dirk Kool.” Awesome name. Dirk was selected as the Missouri Valley Football Conference Defensive Player of the Week, after recording 10 tackles and breaking up the final play. Also, the Jackrabbits go-to ball carrier bears the last name of “Kool,” but his first name is Tyrel. Somewhat oddly, the two do not appear to be related.
It could be a close game when the final horn sounds, but I highly doubt it. South Dakota State is receiving votes for ranking in both major FCS polls this week, but Zook has never lost to an FCS team at Illinois, going 5 and 0 and never losing by fewer than 21 points. This is the nineteenth time the Jackrabbitss will play a current member of the Big Ten: most recently they lost 16-13 at Minnesota in 2009 and lost 17-3 at Nebraska last year. They have beat a Big Ten team, and it was Wisconsin! But that was 1935.
Big Ten Network carries the game again if you’re not headed to Memorial Stadium to brave the 40% chance of thunderstorms predicted during game time. Either way, don’t drink too much tonight: kickoff is 11:00 a.m.