Here we are, year four of the John Groce era at Illinois, and the rosy feelings towards the man we once lovingly called JFG have worn away, or at least frayed significantly at the edges. Injuries notwithstanding, results have come short of expectations in recent years and Illinois basketball doesn’t seem to be in a better spot now than when Groce took over. If there was a way to blame this all on Tim Beckman I’d have found it. Alas, I haven’t, yet. Feel free to post any conspiracy theories in the comments.
Anyway, the 2015-16 basketball season has yet to begin, but it seems like the white flag should already be waiving. The biggest cause for concern thus far: One-third of the Illinois men’s basketball team will begin the 2015-16 season with an injury. The Illini may as well open a practice facility in Carle Hospital. Plus Mike Latulip will be sitting out this season so he can pursue a fifth-year transfer, which means the bench will be a busy place this year.
So this, our preview of the upcoming season, is more like an injury report. Here’s how it goes.
Tracy Abrams, senior point guard: Tore achilles in late July. Second consecutive year with a season-ending injury (torn ACL last year). Will try for second medical redshirt and sixth year of eligibility. Should really be considered a part of the coaching staff at this point.
Jalen Coleman-Lands, freshman guard: Suffered stress fracture in left leg in July. The highly regarded wing player resumed basketball activities in late September. He was able to play in the lone exhibition for the Illini, dropping 20 points against Illinois-Springfield. But UIS is not close to the level of competition or physical size of opponent the Illini will see in the regular season, so how he contributes in the early going remains to be seen.
Leron Black, sophomore forward: Tore meniscus in early October. After surgery on October 9th, Black was scheduled for a 4- to 6-week recovery period, meaning he could miss the first game or two, but should be back sooner rather than later. The only question is whether he’ll be full speed when he comes back. Silver lining(?): apparently his meniscus was torn for a long time (maybe the entire time he’s been on campus) and Black played through it like some kind of marauding Hun rather than a basketball player, which bodes well for how quick his recovery could be (maybe).
Kendrick Nunn, junior guard: Injured left (shooting) thumb in mid-October and underwent surgery on October 21st. Recovery time for this is 8 weeks, putting Nunn out 11 games, until South Dakota, just before the Braggin’ Rights game. This injury is reminiscent to Rayvonte Rice’s hand injury last year. As a precaution, the Illinois coaching staff is monitoring him nonstop to ensure he does nothing to get an additional suspension.
Alex Austin, junior guard: Hurt himself in practice last week and is reportedly sitting out a week or so. Could be ready for the opener, but as he’s walk-on I haven’t seen or heard much news about his status.
Besides the injuries, transfer Darius Paul was asked to leave the team after being arrested (for the second time as an Illini before ever playing a game) while the team was overseas this summer. And yet, despite all that, the Illini are expected to have a team ready to play real basketball against North Florida in Springfield on November 13th. Here’s how the roster looks, injuries and all.
Freshmen
Jalen Coleman-Lands, guard: Groce’s highest-ranked recruit, JCL is a pure shooter that can play well on and off the ball. He has the ability to be a shooting guard or a point guard, but Groce generally likes to play freshman at a single position, and JCL is best at shooting guard. Even with Abrams out all year and point guard thin for the Illini, I expect Coleman-Lands to play the wing this season, especially after his stress fracture, which would limit his practice time at point.
Balls like: Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Michael Finke, forward: The 6’10” Champaign native sat out last season to bulk up and learn how to be more commanding in the post. He’s up to 230 lbs this year, which isn’t a seriously bruising body type, but he should be able to compete in the paint. He has tools that work all over the floor and will get meaningful minutes early with the rash of injuries.
Balls like: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
Aaron Jordan, guard: Smooth is a word often associated with Jordan’s play because he can shoot the ball with confidence from outside or drive the lane and draw a foul. Fans who have been yearning to see more lane penetration from the Illini will be glad to see Jordan on the floor, as he has not been hesitant to slash inside when he sees the opportunity.
Balls like: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
D.J. Williams, guard: Though listed as a guard, the 6’7”, 200 lb Simeon product is going to have some looks at forward and may even end up there permanently before he’s done in Champaign. He’s athletic, but not like fellow Simeon grad Nunn, who wows you with his athleticism. Instead, Williams is a quieter talent. He’s going to have to show strong defense to get longer spells on the floor, though.
Balls like: DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
Sophomores
Leron Black, forward: When the Illini went overseas to rough up some Euro-trash basketball hacks this summer, Black got rave reviews for his presence around the rim. But we all saw this Memphis kid bodying up against Big Ten players last year, so big deal, right? The impressive part is that he did it without fouling out of the games, which is a big step forward for Black. Oh and he did it with a torn meniscus. They don’t call him Beast for nothing.
Balls like: DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
Cameron Liss, forward: Liss seems like a good kid and is probably a great guy to have on the squad, but the walk-on will only ever see garbage time minutes.
Balls like: Insufficient evidence
Juniors
Alex Austin, guard: Another walk-on, but not really like Liss. He had decent numbers at Eastern before transferring in, and I don’t think he came to Illinois only to be a practice player. With the injuries he’ll get some rotation minutes (unless, of course, he’s injured). Whether he get more than 5 minutes in any game depends on how well he balls in his cameos.
Balls like: We’ll see
Malcolm Hill, guard: The water-carrier for Illinois, plain and simple. With Rayvonte Rice gone, this is Hill’s team, and with so many injuries they might go only as far as he leads them. He has the talent to lead them pretty far, however. If Illinois had made the Tourney last year Hill would be preseason first-team All-Big Ten, but they didn’t, so once again he’s starting the year a little under the radar. By the end of the year I think he’ll have made an impact, though. Look for him to be rotated all over the floor, from his natural position on the wing to small forward and even point guard. He’s gonna do it all.
Balls like: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Maverick Morgan, center: The most disappointing recruit in John Groce’s tenure? No, that would be Darius Paul, but Morgan’s performances so far rank him highly on the list. Last year he had a chance to be the number two big guy behind Nnanna Egwu, but Austin Colbert stole that role. This year Colbert’s gone, but I’d say Finke plays more than Morgan based on his past performance. He’s also a noted parrothead, so do with that what you will.
Balls like: Greg Ostertag, retired
Kendrick Nunn, guard: No one is more electrifying on the Illini roster than Nunn. He may have competition from the new guys, but his athleticism is nonpareil. With a quick, full recovery from the thumb injury, I expect Nunn to really blow up this year. Last year Hill made the leap to top-of-the-conference quality, and this year could be Nunn’s coming out party — even in a shortened season.
Balls like: Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
Jaylon Tate, point guard: Once again, Tate is the main ball handler for Illinois after an Abrams injury. Last season he showed flashes of being a serviceable point guard, but not a great one. He could step up in a major way this year, but skepticism reigns over where his ceiling is. I expect Groce to use Tate about the same again this year, if not less by rotating guys like Malcolm Hill or KCL to the point.
Balls like: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
Seniors
Tracy Abrams, point guard: A torn ACL and a torn achilles in one 12-month span. That’s the kind of thing you wouldn’t wish on Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy. Get well and stay well soon, Tracy.
Balls like: Does anyone remember? Looks like: A sad puppy
Mike Latuilp, guard: Robert (@alioneye) from Illini Board predicted Latulip would be a fifth-year transfer to Harvard and lead them to the Tourney. Well, Latulip’s sitting out this year and Tommy Amaker did recruit him out of high school. Maybe those stars are lining up.
Balls like: Mike Miller, Cleveland Cavaliers
Khalid Lewis, point guard: Straight talk: Lewis was probably the 20th choice at point guard for Illinois this year. Lewis, however, was the only one who committed and/or stayed healthy. Since beggars can’t be choosers, the La Salle transfer is a great addition to the squad! Averaged 6 points and 2.2 assists last year on a 17-16 team. Ahmad Starks set a low bar for him to meet in terms of success, so go get ‘em, Khalid.
Balls like: Devin Harris, Dallas Mavericks
Mike Thorne, Jr, forward/center: Another fifth-year transfer, the addition of Thorne should be a big boost to Illinois’s interior presence. Schools like Kansas and Kentucky were after the Charlotte transfer, so this is an important get for Groce. The big man has good defensive skills, can clean up rebounds, and a shoot decent little hook shot. Should start right away.
Balls like: Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
How is this skeleton team going to look on the floor?
Last season Groce would occasionally switch back and forth between big and small lineups based on matchups or the momentum of the game. I think he’ll continue to do that and minutes will be distributed widely across the 13 players available to play.
Ideal (healthy) starting lineup: Thorne Jr. (center), Black (forward), Hill (guard), Nunn (guard), Tate (point guard)
This lineup is the most balanced and should allow the Illini to matchup with anyone fairly well. Expect Hill to dictate play and lead from wherever he is on the floor. If his shooting translates as expected (hoped), Coleman-Lands is the first man off the bench in this group.
Big lineup: Thorne Jr. (center), Black (power forward), Finke (small forward), Nunn (shooting guard), Hill (point guard)
Average height in this group is 6’7”: it’s big. The outside shot of Finke could make this a particularly good lineup, as teams will be working hard to prevent points in the lane, leaving room for a step-back jumper. First man off the bench in this scenario would be D. J. Williams, who could play small forward or shooting guard (and add 4 inches over Nunn).
Small lineup: Black (center), Hill (forward), Nunn (guard), Coleman-Lands (guard), Lewis (point guard)
Speed and shooting would dominate this group, and the fast break would be a big threat. The ability of Hill and Nunn to drive the lane would create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses and make this lineup worth trying, though. First man off the bench for this group is Aaron Jordan, whose slashing skills and smooth play would flow nicely with this group.
Best November 13th lineup guess: Thorne Jr. (center), Finke (forward), Jordan (guard), Hill (guard), Tate (point guard)
This is… not an ideal lineup for game one. Two freshmen starting (Finke has a redshirt year, so he’s not brand new, but still) is a scary proposition, but the other options don’t really work out because this group is going to spread the floor the best and likely present the best scoring options. But looking at this, man, it makes you pray the whole team is healthy by conference season.
Opponents
OpponentsNorth Florida, November 13th (at Springfield)
Last year: 23-12 (1-3 against RPI top 100; win vs.Purdue 73-70). Key returning players: Dallas Moore (guard), Beau Beech (guard/forward), Chris Davenport (forward), Demarcus Daniels (forward).
Believe it or don’t, North Florida beat a Big Ten team (lol Purdue), won the Atlantic Sun Conference, and made the big dance in 2014-15. So, yeah, the opening slate won’t be a cakewalk for Illinois like it was last year. Four of the Ospreys’ starters from last season return this year, but the injury bug has bitten them as well, with center Romelo Banks out due to an ankle injury. Without Banks, North Florida gives up some height, but not a huge contributor; senior Demarcus Daniels, the 14-15 Atlantic Sun defensive player of the year, and junior Chris Davenport will provide plenty of interior coverage. If Illinois gets a win in this game it could be a good sign for things to come.
North Dakota State, November 15th (at Springfield)
Last year: 23-10 (2-5 against RPI top 100, wins vs. South Dakota State x2). Key returning players: Kory Brown (guard), Carlin Dupree (guard).
Ranked #98 in RPI last season, NDSU was also a conference champion and Tourney team; the Bison were even seeded higher than North Florida (16), getting a 10 seed and playing Gonzaga. Two years ago, the Bison knocked off Lon Kruger’s 5-seed Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament (only 2 NDSU players are left from that team), so they know what success looks like at their level. Four of NDSU’s top six scorers are back this season, but the top two are gone. Role players from 2014-15 will have to step up and increase their scoring output for NDSU to make a third straight NCAA trip. The Bison are a rather small team, but they proved they can be competitive with high majors last year and should give Illinois another battle in the early going.
Providence, November 18th (at Providence)
Last year: 22-12 (11-7 against RPI top 100, wins vs. Notre Dame, Butler, Georgetown x2, St. John’s, Xavier, Yale, Rhode Island, UMass, Miami, Seton Hall). Key returning players: Kris Dunn (guard).
Kris F—in’ Dunn is a beast. Preseason Big East player of the year, preseason All-American, preseason national player of the year candidate: the accolades are too numerous to keep listing. He averaged 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists in 2014-15 while grabbing just under 3 steals per game. He will be a lottery pick barring some truly catastrophic event. Good news for Illini fans is that Dunn has almost no one left around him from last season’s NCAA Tourney team. The best returning player besides Dunn for the Friars is Ben Bentil, who averaged 6 points and 4 rebounds. Going to Providence and trying to handle Dunn will be a tall task, but he can’t beat the Illini by himself… at least, I don’t think he can.
Chattanooga, November 21st (at Springfield)
Last season: 22-10 (0-4 against RPI top 100). Key returning players: Casey Jones (guard), Justin Tuoyo (forward).
The Mocs missed the big dance last year, but their lineup had little turnover, leading Southern Conference coaches to pick them as the preseason favorite this year. Jones is the preseason conference player of the year after averaging 14.2 points, 1.8 assists, and 7 rebounds on the wing last season. Chattanooga has some size, but is a guard-heavy team, and they come in with experience (10 juniors and seniors on the roster). Yet another tough one for the Illini.
Chicago State, November 23rd (at Springfield)
Last year: 8-24 (0-4 against RPI top 100). Key returning players: Jared Dimakos (guard/forward), Jawad Adekoya (guard/forward).
Illinois is going to win some (most?) games before this one, but CSU is the first true gimme on the Illini schedule. The Cougars were bad last year and have nine new players this year: odds are they’ll be bad again. Of the six returning players, none scored more than 6.1 points per game last year.
UAB, November 27th (in Niceville, FL, for the Emerald Coast Classic)
Last season: 20-16 (3-8 against RPI top 100, wins vs. Louisiana Tech x2, Iowa State). Key returning players: Robert Brown (guard), William Lee (forward).
Yet another Tourney team on Illinois’s schedule, UAB was Conference USA tournament champion and upset Iowa State in the first round of the NCAA tournament in 2014-15. With all five starters returning, UAB has also been picked as the preseason favorite to win its conference this year. The Blazers steadily improved last year thanks to a very difficult nonconference schedule, culminating in their shocking defeat of Iowa State in the Tourney. UAB is a small team, all starters under 6’9”, but they are balanced: the Blazers averaged 68 points as well as 36 rebounds and 5 blocks per game. Just getting past UAB to the title game of the Emerald Coast Classic will be tough.
Emerald Coast Classic final: #7 Iowa State or Virginia Tech, November 28th (in Niceville, FL)
Last season: 25-9 / 11-22 (Iowa St: 16-7, Virginia Tech: 1-14 against RPI top 100). Key returning players: Iowa St.: Georges Niang (forward), Monte Morris (guard), Jameel McKay (forward); Virginia Tech: Justin Bibbs (guard), Ahmed Hill (guard).
Iowa State was good and return several key players (but not their coach) and Virginia Tech were bad and bring back just two starters. Which would Illinois rather face, I wonder? Of course, who they face depends on the outcome of the UAB game, so here’s the real important info: Iowa State = good team, Virginia Tech = bad team.
#19 Notre Dame, December 2nd (in Champaign)
Last season: 32-6 (14-5 against RPI top 100, wins vs. Massachusetts, Michigan St., Purdue, North Carolina x2, Miami x2, NC State, Duke x2, Louisville, Northeastern, Butler, Wichita State). Key returning players: Zach Auguste (forward), Demetrius Jackson (guard), Steve Vasturia (guard).
Five of the seven players from the Irish’s Elite 8 loss to Kentucky return this year, including three starters. Yeah, this is Illinois’s toughest nonconference game on the schedule because of their killer offense (second in the nation last year). Demetrius Jackson is the most frightening of the Irish, and he’ll be looked to early and often for buckets. Illinois will likely still be without Nunn at this point, as well, which makes the degree of difficulty that much higher. But, this will be the first game in the newly remodeled State Farm Center, so it should be fun for that reason, at least.
Western Carolina, December 5th (in Champaign)
Last season: 15-17 (0-4 against RPI top 100). Key returning players: Mike Brown (guard), Rhett Harrelson (guard), Torrian Brummitt (forward).
The best team WCU played last year was Wofford, which is informative. Last season they had a game cancelled, apparently because it wouldn’t have mattered if they played it anyway. Three returning seniors did average double-digit scoring in 2014-15, however, so maybe don’t expect Illinois to completely blow the Catamounts out of the water. But I’m penciling this in as the first win in Champaign this year.
Yale, December 9th (in Champaign)
Last season: 22-10 (3-5 against RPI top 100, wins vs. Kent St., UConn, Harvard). Key returning players: Justin Sears (forward), Jack Montague (guard).
Despite their decent record, Yale missed the big dance after losing a playoff game to Harvard. This season’s roster has quite a bit of turnover, as well. Sears has thrived as a big man in the Ivy League and can probably hold his own against most teams, but Montague averages a paltry 5.6 points and 1.7 assists per game. Trendy bracket crasher pick in the preseason, but time will tell who this team really is.
UIC, December 12th (in Chicago)
Last season: 10-24 (0-9 against RPI top 100). Key returning players: Paris Burns (guard), Jake Wiegand (forward).
The Flames were anything but hot last year, and, like Yale, they don’t return much for 2015-16. You have to feel a little bad for UIC, as they play a tough schedule each year for nonconference. But, if you’re an Illini fan, you have to be glad to have this easy game on the schedule as a boost for the Orange and Blue’s confidence.
South Dakota, December 19th (in Champaign)
Last season: 17-16 (2-6 against RPI top 100, wins vs. North Dakota St., South Dakota St.). Key returning players: Casey Kasperbauer (guard), Tre Burnette (guard).
No one left on the Coyotes’ roster averaged more than 10 points per game last season. After Illinois’s tough opening slate of games, this should be the end of a string of gimmes. This is also the game when Kendrick Nunn could return to the team, which would be another big boost.
Missouri, December 23rd (Braggin’ Rights game in St. Louis)
Last season: 9-23 (3-18 against RPI top 100, wins vs. Valparaiso, LSU, Florida). Key returning players: Johnathan Williams III (forward), Wes Clark (guard).
Last season the Tigers were abysmal, but still managed to give Illinois as close a game as possible. Mizzou returns its top two scorers, Williams and Clark, but will need supporting cast to step up in order to have a successful 2015-16 season. Regardless of how the season goes, however, this game will be good. They always are.
Photos by Chris D. Davies.