I know what you’re thinking: The Florida Derby, already? Where are the Big Browns and the Quality Roads? What do you mean there’s only one stakes winner in the field? Have I stepped into the Twilight Zone?
It sure feels that way. Ever since Barbaro took Gulfstream’s premiere 3-year-old Kentucky Derby prep race and bounded to victory in the run for the roses, the Florida Derby became the “it race” on the trail to Louisville. With a lucrative purse of $750,000 and preceding the big dance by five weeks, the Florida Derby quickly became a major stepping stone for the stars of the Derby trail over the past several years; run at 1 1/8 miles, it usually offered the most competitive fields, pitting its rivals into a true test of endurance and battle-readiness.
But since its rescheduling to a week earlier, putting an entire six weeks before the Kentucky Derby, many trainers are sweating the extra time. The five-week string of raceless weeks between the Florida Derby and the big dance was always a bit of a worry, but this is almost crazy. On the flip side, there are so many horses without graded earnings in this year’s Florida Derby, any horse that doesn’t rake up some cool coin from this Saturday’s test could realistically run back in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes three weeks from now for one last mad dash for cash.
The one proven horse the ten non-stakes winners will have to beat is the Todd Pletcher-trainee, Rule. Pletcher is 0-24 in the Kentucky Derby, but this year, he is loaded with ammunition for the most coveted jewel of the Triple Crown; only a week ago, the trainer’s leading Derby hopeful, Eskendereya, was pulled from Florida Derby contention and will be pointed instead to the Wood Memorial; this gives Rule a clear shot at gunning down a hapless field of unproven rivals.
At the moment, Rule is on a quest for stakes domination. The winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Delta Jackpot Stakes will be attempting to make the Florida Derby his fifth consecutive victory; already he has more than enough graded earnings to put him into the starting gates of the Kentucky Derby, so this is really just a quest to earn him his first Grade I race and prep him for a shot at glory on the first Saturday in May. His front-running style shouldn’t put him at a disadvantage, as the past three champions to win the race (Barbaro, Big Brown, and Quality Road) were all known speed horses who were able to either lead the way or rate from second on their way to victory. Rule should easily take this field down, unless one of them is ready to make a break-out appearance.
The betting odds will likely be skewed for the Florida Derby due to the presence of Lentenor, Barbaro’s 3-year-old full-brother. A sentimental favorite, Lentenor does not enter the Grade I test unbeaten like his late brother, but he has proven himself to be a testy runner on the grass, never finishing worse than 2nd place on the turf, and placing 3rd in his debut race on the Keeneland Polytrack. The Florida Derby will be Lentenor’s first start on a conventional dirt surface, and it’s hard to tell if he will excel on it or flop. Trainer Michael Matz always said that Barbaro ran better on the turf than dirt (which is saying a lot), so if this is true with Lentenor, the switch in surface may not be to his benefit. This seems like a last-ditch effort to emulate the legacy of the late great Barbaro once again, but as fairy tales happen in horse racing, there’s no shame in dreaming.
Radiohead is set to break into the money for the first time in the States. His first start on dirt was a 7-furlong allowance at Gulfstream February 27, where he won on the main track by 3 ¼ lengths over Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris. The Euro-bred colt has been improving in his training, as well as the Zito-trained Miner’s Reserve, who most recently romped to a 5 ½-length victory at Gulfstream in his second start. Kent Desormeaux is coloring the front-running Mineshaft colt with praise and will be in the irons this Saturday. A win in the Florida Derby would give any of its starters enough graded earnings a ticket to the Kentucky Derby, and most need to place to even start conceiving dreams of Louisville. If any of them can beat the well-conditioned Rule, he must be respected.
Other Races of Note
A field of nine 3-year-olds will line up for a 7-furlong test in the Grade II Swale Stakes at Gulfstream. The horse to beat is D’Funnybone, winner of last month’s Hutcheson Stakes run at the same track and the same distance. D’Funnybone has been making his mark in one-turn, smaller stakes races for his part on the Derby trail. While it certainly doesn’t look to be like much of a challenge for him, it should provide a soft spot to pad his record with more graded earnings. He will be facing Ibboyee, Hear Ye Hear Ye, and Dixie Band, among others. Dixie Band is the lone stakes winner (Grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington) that will challenge D’Funnybone.
As for the Grade II Bonnie Miss for fillies, also run at Gulfstream this Saturday, the field looks much more competitive. For the first time, buzz horse Christine Daae will be entered into stakes competition (for real this time), and she will have no easy task of it. Also in the gate will be the runaway victor of the Davona Dale Stakes, Amen Hallelujah. What we basically have here is a showdown of two of the early favorites for the Kentucky Oaks, minus Blind Luck. Christine Daae absolutely needs to win the Bonnie Miss if she’s to pursue the dream of entering the starting gates of the Kentucky Oaks, unless she wants to run back in three weeks and give another go at a big purse.
Rescheduled for this Saturday is another prep for the Kentucky Oaks, the Grade III Cicada at Aqueduct. The headliner for the test against 3-year-old fillies, Bickersons, remains at the forefront, and will be facing a field of six rivals. Run at 6 furlongs, the Cicada will also feature Indian Burn and Fuzzy Britches, two Aqueduct aficionados who will put Bickersons to the test in this turn back in distance. Bickersons most recently won in dominating fashion in the 7-furlong Grade II Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream Park; her last time out, Bickersons faded to fourth in the 1-mile Davona Dale versus Amen Hallelujah.
For approximate race post times and corresponding networks, please see the schedule at NTRA.com. They are promising they will have enough banwidth to stream the Florida Derby live, as well, this Saturday.