One would expect, given his status among Derby future wagers, that Dunkirk is a seasoned three-year-old who can only move up from his current standing position. He tops many a horseplayer’s lists, and is being touted as “the next Big Brown.” The truth lies in the footnotes. Like Big Brown, Dunkirk is attempting to make the Grade I Florida Derby his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby; like Big Brown at this point last year, he’s never faced stakes competition; and like Big Brown was at this point, he’s got a record of 2 for 2. But unlike Big Brown, Dunkirk never raced as a two-year-old. In fact, he’s going into the Florida Derby with only two prior starts under his belt. If he doesn’t win or finish second in what would be his final Derby prep, Dunkirk won’t be seeing Kentucky at all. And if he does make it to the Kentucky Derby, Dunkirk will face another hurdle: he will attempt to be the first horse to win the Derby that’s never raced as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882.
The horse that stands squarely in his way to Louisville is Quality Road, the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream back in February. How fitting it should be that the horse that stands the biggest chance of knocking Dunkirk off the Derby trail is named Quality Road. If Dunkirk is denied his birth into the Derby gates, I can already see the headlines: “Dunkirk not up to Quality,” “Roadblock to the Derby.” On the other hand, if Dunkirk does topple Quality Road, you might read tags like, “Dunkirk tramples Quality Road,” which would have a meaning in its own right.
Quality Road won impressively in the Fountain of Youth, and has one start more than his competitor. He’s seen some heavy competition, from the likes of Beethoven, Nowhere to Hide, and Theregoesjojo. The latter of these will be making his comeback to rechallenge Road in the Florida Derby. He, too, is a highly-touted colt who must win or place on Saturday to gain enough graded stakes earnings for the Louisville trip. And he has one thing over Dunkirk: he’s beaten Quality Road before. But like Quality Road, Theregoesjojo has never raced around two turns. The 1 1/16-mile Florida Derby will be a test of stamina for these two colts. Here, at least, Dunkirk has the advantage. In his last start, going 1 1/8-miles, the gray son of Unbridled’s Song won after being pushed ten wide in the first turn and still came home resoundingly.
The Florida Derby will answer exactly how good Dunkirk is. We will know if he’s truly a freak like Big Brown, or if he has the class of Curlin. It’s noteworthy to point out that Curlin, too, went into the Kentucky Derby without having raced at two, and the best he could do was a flying third place (but of course, he went on to deny Street Sense his Preakness). 2007 was one of the most talented crops in recent memory, much as this year’s is shaping out to be. So will we have a repeat of 2007, 2008, or something completely different?
The other starters in the Florida Derby are pretty much hoping to pick up the pieces should one of the three favorites take a misstep. The colt who would’ve been high in the rankings, Beethoven, has been sidelined with a light leg injury. It’s foreseeable this winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes will be off the trail, as final prep races are becoming scarcer, though his connections have not yet come to a verdict. One horse who is back on the trail after recovering from injury is Square Eddie, who is among the top in graded stakes standings. He’s only raced once this year, when he was beaten by the Pamplemousse in the San Rafael Stakes, and his people are talking about training him up to the Kentucky Derby. Now that’s what I call confidence. Doubtlessly, the Kentucky Derby is going to be a madhouse this year.
ESPN will air live coverage of the Florida Derby beginning at 5:00pm EST.
Other races of note this weekend:
On Friday, The Bonnie Miss Stakes at Gulfstream will feature likely Kentucky Oaks contenders Justwhistledixie and the unbeaten Gatorette. Estimated post time is 4:43pm ET. HRTV airs coverage.
The Dubai World Cup, the Dubai Golden Shaheen, and the $2 million UAE Derby, featuring the Derby candidate Desert Party will be aired live on Saturday morning on HRTV and TVG. Coverage begins at 9:30am ET. In the Golden Shaheen, Indian Blessing will face males for the first time in her career.
Nicanor will try to break his maiden his third time out in Race 5 on the Florida Derby’s undercard. After finishing second in his last race, the third time should be the charm for Barbaro’s little brother. Post time is approximately 3:11pm. HRTV airs coverage.
The $150,000 Grade II Swale Stakes for three-year-olds will also be run on the Florida Derby’s undercard. Major contenders include This Ones for Phil and Big Drama. The race will be broadcast as a part of ESPN’s Florida Derby coverage and also be aired live on HRTV. Post time is scheduled for 5:11pm ET.
The unbeaten One Caroline will run in Gulfstream’s Grade II Rampart Stakes on Sunday. Post time is approximately 5:14pm ET. HRTV covers.