#5 Michigan State
All-time: 58-58
Tip-off: 8 p.m. in East Lansing
TV: ESPN, streaming on WatchESPN
It’s a little hard to believe Illinois holds a two-game win streak in East Lansing, but Illinois has always played good basketball when visiting Michigan State, with the most wins (5) at the Breslin Center of any visiting team since 2001-2002. Likewise, a few things are trending in the right direction for Illinois right now.
First, senior point guard Khalid Lewis will travel with the team after contracting a case of the mumps (because why wouldn’t an Illini player get fucking mumps this year?). This is good, because in the last two games point guard Jaylon Tate has had to play 34 and 38 minutes, which is not optimal from someone whose strengths are not scoring. Getting Lewis back in the rotation will ease off Tate. Second, against Ohio State, for the first time in the last six games Illinois was not outscored in the second half. Sure, Illinois lost, but this year the victories are small and mostly moral ones, so take what you can get.
Maybe the biggest break Illinois will get tonight, though, is not facing Denzel Valentine. The national player of the year candidate is still sidelined after knee surgery and was ruled out of the game by coach Tom Izzo. This could be gamesmanship, but Izzo doesn’t need that against the Illini. Anyway, Eron Harris has stepped in for Valentine and only averaged 19 points and 5 rebounds. Along with Bryn Forbes (13.8 ppg) and Tum Tum Nairn (4.5 apg), they’re not missing Valentine that badly.
Projected lineups
Illinois: Jaylon Tate, guard; Kendrick Nunn, guard; Jalen Coleman-Lands, guard; Malcolm Hill, guard; Michael Finke, forward
Michigan State: Tum Tum Nairn, guard; Eron Harris, guard; Bryn Forbes, guard; Gavin Schilling, forward; Matt Costello, forward
Gut feeling
Illinois will continue to look like a better team in this one, if only because John Groce’s teams have had a maddening knack for playing up to better opponents (e.g., winning in East Lansing but losing to Michigan twice in 2014-15). I fully expect the Illini to walk out of Breslin without a three-game win streak, but I do think Illinois could look more competitive than it did against Notre Dame, at least in the second half.