Now it’s down to the final round. This Saturday, two major stakes races will take place for 3-year-olds that will either make or break their chances to get into the big dance. A field of 9 horses has been drawn in Arkansas, with each of the contenders butting heads in the shared hope of following in the hoof-steps of Smarty Jones—by winning the Arkansas Derby and advancing on to take the roses. In Kentucky, Keeneland will run the Blue Grass Stakes, and for one buzz horse, the race is his last shot to bank enough graded earnings to be eligible to run in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Two races will produce only two winners, and two instant tickets to the Kentucky Derby.
But first, this Friday will mark the running of the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. Initially moved from its original date when it was scheduled to host the showdown of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and Breeders’ Cup champion Zenyatta in what would be considered the “Race for the Ages,” the Apple Blossom will now only feature one of those stars, and the race will serve as her own personal show. Zenyatta is back at Oaklawn to run again in the single dirt race she has to boast on her record; in the 2008 edition of this female handicap, she faced Breeders’ Cup Distaff champion Ginger 
Punch and was a relatively unknown contender with only three races under her belt. She went off as the 4-1 third choice. This time around, Zenyatta will hardly be close to those odds. She will be attempting to equal Cigar and Citation’s modern-day record of winning 16 consecutive races not limited to state-breds. A field of only four fillies or mares, with nary a Grade I-winner among them, have dared to challenge her. Needless to say, anything other than an effortless romp in the Apple Blossom by Zenyatta would be a surprise. Just watch her and be grateful to see this living legend return to the surface she supposedly likes more than that fake stuff back home.
The Grade I Arkansas Derby is offering up a purse of $1 million dollars to the horse that can come home first on Oaklawn’s traditional dirt track. Given that there are only two contenders in the 9-horse field who already have enough graded earnings to be in the top 20, any win by a horse not already on that list would severely shift the top 20 around. Noble’s Promise, who probably end up going off as the favorite, has already secured a safe spot at #2 on the list, thanks to a runner-up victory in the Grade III Rebel Stakes to Lookin at Lucky, and a 3rd place finish in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year at Santa Anita; this performance in the BC Juvenile was the colt’s only third-place effort in 7 starts. He has finished second to Lookin at Lucky twice, and now that Baffert’s golden boy isn’t in Arkansas, Noble’s Promise is poised to take the spotlight. If for some reason he fails, able contenders Super Saver and Dublin will be ready to pounce. Also safe in the top 20, Dublin finished 3rd behind Noble’s Promise and Lucky in the Rebel at Oaklawn. Before that, he ran second to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes at the same track. Both he and Super Saver are best known for efforts as juveniles; Dublin won the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga, while Super Saver romped in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Last time out, Super Saver finished third in that furious photo of Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams in the Tampa Bay Derby. A legitimate win in the Arkansas Derby will give the contender a boost of credibility for the Kentucky Derby, as Oaklawn’s dirt track has been called similar to the dirt at Churchill Downs; the same, unfortunately, can’t be said about the Blue Grass Stakes.
Though the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes hasn’t been a reputable prep race for Kentucky Derby hopefuls lately, with none of its winners in the past 15 years going on to win the roses, hope must be held with the knowledge that Street Sense finished second in the 2007 edition of the Blue Grass and went on to better that effort three weeks later when it really counted. This year’s edition of the Blue Grass will feature four horses on the bubble of the top 20 for graded earnings: Aikenite, Interactif, Make Music For Me, and Odysseus, with the latter being the most legitimate dirt horse among them. Unfortunately for Odysseus, the Blue Grass is run over the most quirky synthetic surface in the world, Polytrack. Just why his connections decided to run this horse, who is at #24 on the graded earnings list, in a Polytrack race when he has never run on synthetics before, and has won 3 of his 4 starts on dirt in his final chance to break into the Kentucky Derby, will go down as one of the great mysteries of all-time should he lose. And if Odysseus, by some twist of fate, wins this most obscene of tests, his status would be elevated on many a horseplayer’s Derby list, as most dirt horses just can’t transfer their winning form to synthetics, and his connections would be hailed as all-knowing gurus for taking that risk and putting all their faith in their colt.
But here’s what’s more likely to happen, as history has taught us: a colt with experience on synthetic surfaces or turf will take home the trophy at Keeneland, and end up trailing the field come the first Saturday in May. Who fits that bill? Aikenite holds the distinction of having finished best on Keeneland’s main track. As a juvenile, this Todd Pletcher-trainee finished second in the Grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity to Noble’s Promise. 2010 is the year of Pletcher, and if Aikenite doesn’t take it, the upset could possibly go to Interactif, the hot trainer’s other entrant. Last time out, Interactif finished second in the Grade II San Felipe to Sidney’s Candy, the colt who most recently upset Lookin at Lucky in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. Make Music for Me is currently sitting at #20 on the infamous Derby list, and has won only once in seven starts, though his lone victory came in stakes competition in the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita; he has faced the likes of Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise, so maybe the delay to breaking his maiden had something to do with the company he was keeping.
Of all the horses entered in the Blue Grass, I’ll just come out and say it—Odysseus most deserves to take the graded earnings to Louisville. His improbable victory in the Tampa Bay Derby by a whisker is one of the most inexplicable prep races I’ve ever witnessed as a racing fan, and the more experience this horse gets, the better he’ll likely become. It would be a shame if he didn’t have the dough to at least try to run for the roses, but as Odysseus shattered the hopes of Schoolyard Dreams when he denied him a victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, perhaps instant karma is going to turn around and bite this game chestnut in the behind when he tries his last bid for graded earnings.
The Daily Racing Form’s website, drf.com, will stream the Grade I Apple Blossom live at 6:55pm ET. The Grade I Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes will be aired live on NBC at 5pm ET.